![]() This is a critically important judgment for the future of U.S. With continuing support from Pakistan, Russia, Iran, and terrorist groups like al-Qa`ida, it is the view of the author that the Taliban would eventually overthrow the Afghan government in Kabul. forces … will likely shift the balance of power in favor of the Taliban. … without a peace deal, the further withdrawal of U.S. 1 In concluding his study, Jones considered the implications of the current situation in Afghanistan and wrote that: In the November/December 2020 issue of this publication, Seth Jones examined the ideology, objectives, structure, strategy, and tactics of the Afghan Taliban, as well as the group’s relationship to other non-state actors and sources of state support. Abstract: A key question for the future of Afghanistan is if the United States withdraws the remainder of its forces from the country, would Afghanistan’s security forces or the Taliban be stronger militarily? According to a net assessment conducted by the author across five factors-size, material resources, external support, force employment, and cohesion-the Taliban would have a slight military advantage if the United States withdraws the remainder of its troops from Afghanistan, which would then likely grow in a compounding fashion.
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